The Impact of Political Uncertainty and Abnormal Market Conditions on Institutional Trading Behavior

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty and abnormal market conditions on institutional trading behavior. The study finds that institutional investors are net buyers during abnormal market decreases and net sellers during abnormal market increases. Institutional investors’ net buying activity declines because of aversion to political uncertainty. Institutional investors face high price impact during times of high political uncertainty and abnormal market conditions. In abnormal market declines, institutional sells face a 2.98% price impact. In abnormal market increases, institutional buys generate a price impact of 3.24%. This study also finds that high political uncertainty increases price impact during abnormal market declines by up to 0.10%.

TOPICS: Tail risks, analysis of individual factors/risk premia, financial crises and financial market history